UPDATE AT 8:49 P.M. ET: We reported earlier that the first IBD/Tipp tracking poll for this election has just reported its first results - Obama by two points, 45-43. This is outside the range of all other polls. However, IBD/Tipp had the best record for accuracy in the 2004 election. You can read the internal details of the poll here.
COMMENT: Please note that the poll was taken over a six-day period, rather than the traditional three days for tracking polls. That means it is not as up to date as other trackers, which may account for it being an outlier. Also, accuracy in 2004 is not a guarantee of accuracy this year. I'd be cautious about these results.