Whenever I find a poll, or article, that takes a political point of view or shows a result that I find to be in contrast with what I think is common sense, my ears get pointed and I get interested.
Take the case of the Senate election in Minnesota between Demo Al Franken and Repub Norm Coleman. The election ended too close to call and we have had various challenges, recounts, etc., ever since. Coleman’s claim has been that the votes weren’t all counted the same. As I noted in the Link below, I think he has a point and that seems wrong to me.
The Minnesota Board of Elections, a three judge panel, disagrees with me. Their position appears to be that well….. the election officials tried to do it right…
Well, well. Will that become the new defense? “Judge, I tried to NOT rob that bank.”
Over vote link.So now Coleman finds that he can accept having the election decided by different rules in different places, or he can appeal. Concede or appeal to the Minnesota SC and then, if he loses there, up the Federal chain to the US SC.
Various pundits have weighed in on both sides which matters not to me. What I do find of interest is this that poll that claims that 63% of the voters in Minnesota want Coleman to concede. Since the election ended too close to call, I was curious. So I started digging through the poll.
First I looked at how the voters in the poll claimed to have voted.
Q7 In the US Senate election last fall, who did you vote for? If you voted for Norm Coleman, press 1. If you voted for Al Franken, press 2. If you voted for Dean Barkley, press 3. If youdidn’t vote or don’t remember, press 4.
Coleman ......................................................... 41%
Franken........................................................... 41%
Barkley............................................................ 13%
Didn't Vote/Don't Remember .......................... 5%
I then looked up the party affiliation of those polls.
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3Democrat ........................................................ 39%
Republican...................................................... 28%
Independent/Other.......................................... 32%
Link to Minnesota Senate Recount Poll.Q7 Is a snapshot of 11/4/08, if you believe the results. But, the issue isn’t what was done on 11/4/09, but whether or not Coleman should concede.
I then went to Q9. It should be obvious that a Democrat would be more likely to favor Coleman conceding. And my knowledge of MN politics tell me that the “Independents” are very much Leftwing Liberations and Populists. (Not the same person, obviously.)
So what would a reasonable person expect? I would expect that on the question of whether not Coleman should appeal, the results of the Poll’s loading Demo 39- Repub 28- Independent (Barkley) 32 number would follow party affiliation.
And they do.
If you go down to the crosstabs (back up information) in the poll, 93% of the Demos, 25% of the Repubs and 61% of the Barkley (Ind) voters polled want him to concede.
Okay, that makes sense. What doesn’t make sense is why the people polled are weighted the way they are.
Even more interesting is why these people changed their minds? And why in such astonishing numbers? Look 41% of those polled said they voted for Coleman.
Now 63% say they want him to concede?
That doesn’t make a lot of sense, now does it? As for the poll? I have no idea as to why it was done, who paid for it and why it was weighted the way it was.
