Monday, May 26, 2008

Crude oil at $200

Both sides lately have been fond of playing what I call the "worse/better than when us/you came into power.

The Democrats especially enjoy it because they can go back to 2001 and say:
"When George Bush took office oil was selling for about $20.00 a barrel. It broke $132.00 a barrel this week. That's a 650 percent increase."

And this is true enough. But let us look at the "rest of the story" as Paul Harvey says.

In the first six (6) years that Bush was President, with a Republican Congress, oil climbed from about $20 a barrel to about $55.00 a barrel. That is about a 270 per cent increase. Said another way that is a $35.00 barrel increase, or about .48 cents a month. Of course the increases weren't steady. There were increases and decreases as you expect any commodity market to have. But that's the rate of increase.

Now I cut the Republicans no slack for that. And even though they had no real hope of getting new drilling and new refinery construction going due the lack of a filibuster proof majority, they didn't really try. No bully pulpit. No demands for Congress to act. They didn't do squat.

Now some may say that Bush was defocused by the war and the Democrats opposition to the war, and that is why he didn't act, just as Clinton was said to be so defocused by Monicagate he didn't act to, as Clinton admitted, pick up bin Ladin when he could have. And while I see some small logic in both claims, I cut neither any slack. They're big boys and girls and have staffs and should be able to walk and chew bubblegum at the same time.

But the real question is, why, after the Democrats took control, did the price go from $55 to $132?? Let both sides admit to the facts. Oil at $55 a barrel was no particular problem. But now, with a solid Democratic Congress, we have a huge problem. A $132 a barrel problem. That is about a 240 per cent increase, or about $77in 15 months or about $5.13 a month. And the increase has been steady, no up and downs, just a linear $5.13 each month. Something you wouldn't expect in a commmodity market.

And yet the Demos "we don't give a shit" attitude continues. They compounded it two weeks ago by, again, turning down a Republican attempt to drill in ANWAR and off shore....

That was highly stupid. The country is being bled dry and the Democrats won't try to protect it. That is damnable at best.

But let's return to the question. Why did it take 6 years for oil to go up about 270 per cent, yet less than 15 months for it to go up 240 percent? That is a huge difference. The difference is in the rate of change. About 270% increase in 72 months under Bush and a Republican Congress. 240% in less than 15 months under a Democrat Congress. You are getting 2014 prices, today. The shock to the economy is terrible.

So what happened? Well, a theory. OPEC and the oil companies are not stupid. As long as Bush and the Republicans were in power, any real radical rate of change just might generate enough public out rage and heat that a bill could get passed to build refineries and start drilling to increase supply.

But. As soon as the Democrats took control of Congress there was absolutely no chance of that happening. And the results speak for themselves.

That anyone would even think about voting for a Demo is beyond me. Of course there are large numbers of stupid people in this world.



2 comments:

  1. I'm really thinking about printing up stickers for the gas pumps I go to.

    They'll say something like:
    The Dems promised to do something about high gas prices two years ago--this November would be a good time to tell them *you're doing it wrong!*

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